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    基于堆叠集成学习的致密砂岩储层束缚水饱和度预测与渗透率计算

    Stacking-based ensemble learning for bound water saturation and permeability estimation in tight sandstone reservoirs using well logs

    • 摘要: 致密砂岩气藏是目前重要的油气勘探领域,其储层孔隙结构复杂、渗透率低、束缚水含量高,测井评价技术面临挑战。核磁共振测井能够准确地识别储层束缚水和可动水,但无法覆盖所有探井,常规测井资料的束缚水饱和度预测与渗透率计算具有局限性,迫切需要深入研究新方法。提出了一种基于堆叠集成学习的致密砂岩储层束缚水饱和度预测与渗透率计算方法,以核磁共振测井计算的束缚水饱和度为标签,引入常规测井数据及岩石物理模型计算的储层特征参数为输入,融合物理模型与数据驱动,构建多个基学习器(随机森林、极端梯度提升和梯度提升)与元学习器(随机森林)组合的集成学习框架。通过训练多个基学习器生成初始预测结果,将其作为特征输入至元学习器中,利用交叉验证方式训练,实现常规测井的束缚水饱和度预测。根据岩石物理实验结果,回归Timur-Coates公式,结合预测的束缚水饱和度,实现致密砂岩含气储层渗透率计算。将该方法应用于东海陆架盆地XH凹陷C区块HG组致密砂岩储层,验证集束缚水饱和度预测平均绝对误差为5.1%,多井平均绝对误差为4.87%,在新井C5井上的应用误差为6.1%,渗透率平均对数误差小于0.3,该方法显著提高了致密砂岩储层束缚水饱和度预测与渗透率评价精度,具有良好的适应性和推广价值。

       

      Abstract: Tight sandstone gas reservoirs are an important target for oil and gas exploration. However, their complex pore structures, low permeability, and high bound water content pose significant challenges for well logging evaluation. Although nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) logging can effectively distinguish irreducible water from movable water, it is not available in all wells. On the other hand, bound water saturation and permeability estimation from conventional log data is not sufficiently accurate and requires further study. This study proposes a stacking-based ensemble learning method for estimating bound water saturation and permeability in tight sandstone reservoirs. The proposed ensemble learning framework integrates petrophysical models with data-driven strategies, and uses bound water saturation from NMR logs as the target and conventional logs together with rock-physics-derived parameters as inputs. It employs Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting, and Gradient Boosting as base learners, with Random Forest as the meta-learner. The initial predictions from multiple base learners are used as features to train the meta-learner through cross validation, enabling bound water saturation prediction from conventional well logs. Permeability of tight sandstone gas reservoirs is then calculated using the Timur-Coates equation regressed from rock physics experimental data combined with the predicted bound water saturation. Application of this method to the HG Member in Block C of the XH sag in the East China Sea Shelf Basin achieves mean absolute errors of 5.1% on the validation set, 4.87% on multi-well data, and 6.1% on the new Well C5 for bound water saturation, with a mean logarithmic error below 0.3 for permeability. The proposed method significantly improves the accuracy of bound water saturation and permeability estimation in tight sandstone reservoirs and demonstrates strong adaptability and applicability for broader use.

       

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