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    基于异质集成学习的红星地区页岩岩相识别方法

    Shale lithofacies identification based on heterogeneous ensemble learning in Hongxing area

    • 摘要: 红星地区页岩油气藏与岩相密切相关,但基于地质与岩心等数据的岩相识别方法存在精度不足、适用性有限的问题。针对红星地区页岩岩相识别精度不足的瓶颈问题,融合贝叶斯分类、反向传播神经网络(BP神经网络)和随机森林3种机器学习方法,构建了一种异质集成学习模型。研究采用矿物成分(硅质、粘土质、灰质)与总有机碳含量构成的“三端元−四组分”分类方案,将红星地区页岩划分为富碳混合质、富碳硅质、高碳混合质、高碳硅质及中碳灰质等5类岩相,并通过自适应概率融合机制集成3类方法的学习优势。实验结果显示:新模型在测试集中综合识别准确度达到93.19%,对比单一方法平均上升了14.85%,且在样本量不足、数据噪声强、类别分布不均衡等极端场景下均保持高鲁棒性。跨区域(复兴地区)验证了其空间泛化能力,为页岩气甜点预测提供了高精度岩相识别工具。

       

      Abstract: Shale oil and gas accumulations in Hongxing area are closely related to lithofacies. However, traditional methods of lithofacies identification based on geologic and core data suffer from low accuracy and limited applicability. To address the bottleneck issue of low identification accuracy, we construct a heterogeneous ensemble learning model that integrates three machine learning methods: Bayesian classification, back propagation neural network (BP neural network), and random forest. The study adopts a 3-endmember 4-component scheme based on mineral composition (siliceous, argillaceous, and calcareous) and total organic carbon content, which classifies Hongxing shales into five lithofacies types: carbon-rich hybrid shales, carbon-rich siliceous shales, high-carbon hybrid shales, high-carbon siliceous shales, and medium-carbon calcareous shales. An adaptive probability fusion mechanism is employed to integrate the learning strengths of these three methods. Experimental results demonstrate that the new model achieves a comprehensive identification accuracy of 93.19% in the test set, representing an improvement of 14.85% over single-method approaches on the average. High robustness could be perfectly maintained in some extreme conditions: insufficient sample size, strong data noise, and class imbalance. In view of its spatial generalization capacity confirmed by cross-regional validation (in Fuxing area), this model provides a high-precision lithofacies identification tool for shale gas sweet spotting.

       

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