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    基于异质集成学习的红星地区页岩岩相识别方法

    Shale lithofacies identification based on heterogeneous ensemble learning in Hongxing area

    • 摘要: 红星地区页岩储集层的岩相与油气勘探开发效果直接相关,是储层有效性评价的关键。针对红星地区页岩岩相标签样本稀缺、常规测井响应特征重叠的识别缺点,提出了一种异质集成学习模型,形成了具有普适性的页岩岩相智能识别方法。首先,基于矿物三端元(硅质、粘土质、灰质)与总有机碳(TOC)含量建立的 “三端元−四组分” 岩相划分方案,将研究区页岩划分为富碳混合质、富碳硅质、高碳混合质、高碳硅质及中碳灰质等 5 类岩相;随后,采用Stacking堆叠集成框架,经K折交叉验证生成贝叶斯分类、BP神经网络、随机森林3类基础学习器的预测概率矩阵,通过自适应概率融合机制优化权重分配,并协同贝叶斯分类对稀缺样本的适配性、BP神经网络对复杂特征的非线性拟合能力及随机森林的强稳定性,建立了一种新的异质集成学习模型及相应的数据处理流程。红星地区应用结果表明:该模型综合识别准确率达93.19%,较贝叶斯分类、BP神经网络、随机森林等单一预测方法,准确率平均提高14.85%,证实该方法在样本稀缺、数据噪声大、数据类别分布不均衡等复杂场景下具有优异的鲁棒性。最后,将该学习模型应用于复兴地区页岩岩相的识别,进一步验证了该方法的空间泛化能力。

       

      Abstract: The enrichment degree of shale oil and gas in the Hongxing area is highly correlated with lithofacies characteristics, which serve as a core indicator for shale reservoir evaluation in the region and directly affect the efficiency and accuracy of oil and gas exploration and development; to address the identification challenges of scarce lithofacies label samples and complex overlapping conventional logging response characteristics of shales in the Hongxing area, this study proposes a heterogeneous ensemble learning model integrating three machine learning methods: Bayesian classification, BP neural network, and random forest. Firstly, the model establishes a refined "3-endmember 4-component" lithofacies classification scheme based on mineral three-endmembers (siliceous, argillaceous, calcareous) and total organic carbon (TOC) content, accurately classifying the shales in the study area into five types: carbon-rich hybrid shales, carbon-rich siliceous shales, high-carbon hybrid shales, high-carbon siliceous shales, and medium-carbon calcareous shales. Subsequently, a Stacking ensemble framework is adopted, generating lithofacies prediction probability matrices of the three base learners (Bayesian classification, BP neural network, and random forest) through K-fold cross-validation, and optimizing weight allocation via an adaptive probability fusion mechanism to synergize the adaptability of Bayesian classification to scarce samples, the nonlinear fitting capability of BP neural network for complex features, and the strong stability of random forest, thereby realizing direct identification and rule characterization of target lithofacies based on conventional logging curves. Application of the model to shale lithofacies identification in Well HY1-4, a typical well in the Hongxing area, yields results showing that the model achieves a comprehensive identification accuracy of 93.19%, representing an average effective improvement of 14.85% compared with single methods such as Bayesian classification, BP neural network, and random forest; it maintains excellent robustness under extreme exploration scenarios including scarce samples, significant data noise, and unbalanced class distribution, and demonstrates favorable spatial generalization ability through cross-regional validation in Well FY10 of the Fuxing area.

       

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